Africa’s Demand for Refined Products to Surge into 2050
Africa is entering a defining moment in the global energy landscape—one where the continent can harness its abundant fossil fuel resources to drive equitable and sustainable development. According to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2026 Outlook Report: The State of African Energy, Africa must strategically expand refining capacity, strengthen trading networks, and scale the adoption of cleaner fuels if it is to meet the anticipated energy demands of 2050.
The report highlights a significant surge in refined product needs across the continent. Africa’s demand for refined petroleum products is expected to grow from roughly 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to more than 6 million bbl/d by 2050, driven by population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion.
While many developed economies move to reduce oil and gas dependence, Africa is poised to fully utilize its resources—just as advanced nations once did—to enhance energy security and economic resilience.
A Distinct African Energy Pathway
Unlike Europe or North America, Africa’s energy transition will follow a unique trajectory. Per capita oil consumption remains the lowest globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving vast room for growth. With the continent’s population projected to increase by over 930 million people—reaching nearly 2.4 billion by 2050—demand for energy is set to climb dramatically.
Africa could represent 25% of the global population and 63% of worldwide population growth by mid-century. Alongside this demographic boom, the continent’s GDP is projected to nearly triple to USD 7.8 trillion, driven by a compound annual growth rate of nearly 4%.
Despite accounting for 18% of the global population, Africa currently uses less than 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes only 3% to global GDP—evidence of significant untapped potential.
The AEC’s 2026 Outlook Report makes it clear: rising populations, growing industries, and rapid urbanization will fuel Africa’s increasing appetite for refined products well into the future.
Gasoline Demand: Africa Takes the Global Lead
Africa is expected to become the largest source of global gasoline demand growth, offsetting declines in China and OECD nations. By 2050, the continent’s gasoline consumption is projected to rise to over 2.2 million bbl/d.
Nigeria leads continental consumption, but its per capita usage remains modest, signaling room for expansion. Meanwhile, mature markets such as Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa may experience stagnation after the early 2040s due to:
- Improved vehicle fuel efficiency
- Rising use of CNG/LPG vehicles (Egypt, Algeria)
- Limited EV adoption (South Africa)
Even as EVs slowly enter the market, inadequate electricity supply and minimal charging infrastructure will limit their uptake. Gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles will remain the dominant mode of personal and commercial transport across most of Africa.
Diesel/Gasoil: Powering Industry and Extraction
Diesel demand is projected to grow even faster than gasoline. Consumption is expected to rise by about 880,000 bbl/d by 2050, reaching just under 2.7 million bbl/d—a nearly 50% increase.
Key drivers include:
- Expanding mining and extractive industries, especially in Angola, the DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
- Major mineral-related projects, including the Lobito Corridor in the Copperbelt
- Increased trucking needs for growing populations and economies
Diesel will remain indispensable for heavy-duty transport, mining, and off-grid power generation.
Aviation Fuels: Strong Rebound and Long-Term Growth
Jet fuel and kerosene demand is rebounding rapidly and expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2025. Consumption is forecast to grow from 280,000 bbl/d today to 465,000 bbl/d by 2050—a 65% increase.
Growth will be driven by:
- Rising intra-African and international travel
- Expanding tourism and business sectors
- Investment in aviation infrastructure, such as Ethiopia’s new major airport
- Improved continental connectivity under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
LPG: The Most Promising Path to Cleaner Cooking
Among refined products, LPG represents Africa’s greatest opportunity for cleaner household energy. More than 900 million Africans still lack access to clean cooking solutions, relying on biomass and coal that cause severe health and environmental harm.
Switching to LPG would:
- Cut particulate emissions by 98%
- Save 1.2 million hectares of forest annually
- Reduce black carbon emissions by 117 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent
- Lower CO₂ emissions by 279 million tonnes annually—comparable to the total emissions of countries like Taiwan or Malaysia
Yet LPG consumption remains low at under 20 million tonnes per year due to policy gaps, financing constraints, and weak distribution networks. With the right interventions, LPG demand could more than double by 2050.
Infrastructure Investment: A $20 Billion Imperative
Africa’s rising demand will require substantial downstream investments:
- More than USD 20 billion needed by 2050 for import and distribution infrastructure
- Completion of major refinery projects like Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery
- Additional smaller-scale refinery upgrades in Angola, Uganda, and other markets
These investments are essential to reduce import dependence, stabilize local markets, and ensure long-term energy security.
Charting Africa’s Energy Future
The AEC’s 2026 Outlook Report paints a picture of a continent on the verge of unprecedented growth. To harness this momentum, policymakers and investors must prioritize:
- Efficient trading systems
- Local refining expansion
- Adoption of cleaner alternatives, especially LPG
- Long-term infrastructure development
Africa’s vast population and economic potential will shape global energy demand for decades to come. By making the right investments today, the continent can secure a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for nearly 2.4 billion people by mid-century.
